When will we see a significant correction? - Page 2 - geek/talk: Web publishing business discussion

MadCool · 02-27-2002, 01:00 AM

I personally think CPM will go back up a little, but not to the 99/2000 days. DoubleClick is still able to produce a few very high CPM campaigns.

notibrian · 02-27-2002, 12:22 PM

When will we see a significant correction?

well, the current economic conditions around the world is very very very bad ... everything seems to be going down except for job cuts. in order to see a significant correction of the internet industry, all other sectors and industries around the world have to recover first(when there are extra fund to invest in the market) and i think it has to take several years for that to happen

even though the significant correction will not likely be the good old days of $5/CPM, i think those who still survive will be able to make 50%-100% more than what they are making now. so, just hold on and hold on tight!

anyway, just my 2 cents

Steve_S · 03-05-2002, 05:00 PM

The 3/4/02 WSJ - Marketplace section had an interesting and dare I say somewhat self serving quote in the Boom Town Column by Kara Swisher <wew>

The quote comes from Larry Kramer, CEO of the San Francico bassed online financial site named www.marketwatch.com. This stock has hit highs of nearly $80 in 1999 and is currently trading in the $3.60 range.

Larry Kramer Quote from article: "What I am heartened by is that we have proved we have a business that has not died in the worst of times."

WOW! dandy. A new genre of a business plan just hit the streets. Soon to be taught at a "B" school near you. Forget profit. Forget your investors and their exspectations of a profit. Forget the millions that your investors have lost. Just concentrate on not dying.

Notes: I do not and never have had a position in this stock (MKTW). Kramer and Swisher have been invited to comment.

jkcity · 03-10-2002, 11:38 PM

I voted for q4 2002 which is when I think things will start to improve, I think things will stay the same till then I think we have reached the bottom I know my revenue has been constant for the last few months (in fact it has been increasing but not by much) but I don't think you will see things getting back to good levels for at least another 5 - 10 years, I think you can make good money in between the next 5 years or so I just think it will take about 5 years for the market to fully mature, alot is always going on and that takes time to sort out.

The only thing is if you want to benifit in 5 - 10 years you have to be part of it now, as by then it will be much harder to get into and benifit without money.

tmax · 03-12-2002, 03:00 PM

I'm with you jkcity in terms of thinking long term about advertising rates. I think they will rebound this year, later than earlier. However, like you, I think the payoff won't really be seen until years down the road. It may not take 5-10 years - it's so hard to predict in "internet time." But as the internet evolves, so will it's banners. I think banners will be more interactive and, hopefully, more entertaining. So many of us are used to scanning webpages and visually blocking out the banners out of habit. Once online advertising becomes more engaging and captivating, their CTR's will raise and hence their effective will rise as well. Only then, IMHO, will the rates significantly raise = when they are proven a more valuable tool for the advertiser. Just an opinion.....

tmax

Lasse · 03-13-2002, 02:14 PM

Q4 2002 should show an increase. May not be dramatic, but I think we've seen the bottom, and a slow, steady and realistic increase will emerge during the 2002.

I wouldn't make any predictions to 5-10yrs on the tech sector!

europeforvisitors · 03-19-2002, 01:33 AM

Quote:

I think banners will be more interactive and, hopefully, more entertaining. So many of us are used to scanning webpages and visually blocking out the banners out of habit. Once online advertising becomes more engaging and captivating, their CTR's will raise and hence their effective will rise as well.

I think the real reason for low banner success (whether defined by percentage of clickthroughs or by user awareness) has less to do with the creative product than with relevance of the ads. When I see ads for a "Windows Casino" on an About.com travel site, or if I get a Orbitz pop-under when I'm reading about cars at NewYorkTimes.com, I can't help wondering why more advertisers aren't taking advantage of obviously ad-hungry publishers by purchasing targeted banners, skyscrapers, or pop-unders in what is obviously a buyer's market.

denasio · 03-28-2002, 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by MadCool
I personally think CPM will go back up a little, but not to the 99/2000 days.

I've been hearing this a lot in this thread. But what where the CPM and CPC back in 1999/2000?

notibrian · 03-28-2002, 11:33 PM

during 1999/2000 i was getting around $2-5/CPM and $0.1-0.2/CPC ... some people might get higher rates than i was

Edwin · 03-28-2002, 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by denasio
I've been hearing this a lot in this thread. But what where the CPM and CPC back in 1999/2000?

In 1999, I ran some campaigns at between $8-15 CPM on my main site, and up to $50 CPM on some of my small, much more targeted sites... the best I got in (very) early 2000 was $3 CPM. Since early 2000, I haven't succeeded in selling any ads on a CPM basis.

Nintendo · 03-29-2002, 08:37 PM

:::up to $50 CPM on some of my small, much more targeted sites

WOW!!!! That's $50,000 for just 1,000,000 ad views!!!!!!!! Get 1,000,000 a month for a year and that's $600,000!!!!!!!!

Blubster · 04-01-2002, 09:44 PM

oh my... you don't really mean $50 CPM... do you? argh...

That tremendous correction (from $10 to $.50 or less) may have been shocking for all you.

What I see is that; even if the current rates are what could be reasonable in the industry development, even if there are much more publishers looking for buyers than marketers looking for stock impressions and even if the publisher group grows faster than the advertiser group, the huge correction shown from 1999 to 2001 SHOULD make a wave correction in the other direction, just as a normal economical reaction.

Probably we are on the middle of a W shape, as Czar pointed, or maybe we have seen the lowest level of the advertisement market. Anyways, the correction seems to be starting, and seen the importance of the downing correction, this new movement -IMHO- will be really significant in no more than 12 months.

Edwin · 04-02-2002, 12:20 AM

Yes, $50 CPM is correct, but that's on sites with 10,000-25,000 pageviews a month and very, very targeted to specific topics.

**singloon** · 04-02-2002, 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Edwin

In 1999, I ran some campaigns at between $8-15 CPM on my main site, and up to $50 CPM on some of my small, much more targeted sites... the best I got in (very) early 2000 was $3 CPM. Since early 2000, I haven't succeeded in selling any ads on a CPM basis.

shame i was only starting out back in 1999

geekvillager · 04-02-2002, 08:24 AM

Publisher supply is much more than merchant demand and this will continue at an increasing rate.

CPM rate will fluctuates depending on the current market conditions but it is very unlikely to rise in the long run.

View Poll Results: When will we see a significant correction?
Q2 - 2002	4	4.71%
Q3 - 2002	19	22.35%
Q4 - 2002	17	20.00%
Q1 - 2003	10	11.76%
Q2 - 2003	9	10.59%
Q3 - 2003	2	2.35%
Q4 - 2003	5	5.88%
Q1 - 2004	1	1.18%
Q2 - 2004	2	2.35%
Q3 - 2004	0	0%
Q4 - 2004	16	18.82%
Voters: 85. You may not vote on this poll

03-05-2002, 05:00 PM	#18
Steve_S Join Date: Aug 1998 Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA Posts: 5,224	The 3/4/02 WSJ - Marketplace section had an interesting and dare I say somewhat self serving quote in the Boom Town Column by Kara Swisher <wew> The quote comes from Larry Kramer, CEO of the San Francico bassed online financial site named www.marketwatch.com. This stock has hit highs of nearly $80 in 1999 and is currently trading in the $3.60 range. Larry Kramer Quote from article: "What I am heartened by is that we have proved we have a business that has not died in the worst of times." WOW! dandy. A new genre of a business plan just hit the streets. Soon to be taught at a "B" school near you. Forget profit. Forget your investors and their exspectations of a profit. Forget the millions that your investors have lost. Just concentrate on not dying. Notes: I do not and never have had a position in this stock (MKTW). Kramer and Swisher have been invited to comment. Last edited by Steve_S; 03-05-2002 at 05:03 PM.

03-12-2002, 03:00 PM	#20
tmax Registered User Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Valencia, CA Posts: 64	5 to 10 years I'm with you jkcity in terms of thinking long term about advertising rates. I think they will rebound this year, later than earlier. However, like you, I think the payoff won't really be seen until years down the road. It may not take 5-10 years - it's so hard to predict in "internet time." But as the internet evolves, so will it's banners. I think banners will be more interactive and, hopefully, more entertaining. So many of us are used to scanning webpages and visually blocking out the banners out of habit. Once online advertising becomes more engaging and captivating, their CTR's will raise and hence their effective will rise as well. Only then, IMHO, will the rates significantly raise = when they are proven a more valuable tool for the advertiser. Just an opinion..... tmax

03-29-2002, 08:37 PM	#26
Nintendo Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Planet Zeekois Posts: 1,289	:::up to $50 CPM on some of my small, much more targeted sites WOW!!!! That's $50,000 for just 1,000,000 ad views!!!!!!!! Get 1,000,000 a month for a year and that's $600,000!!!!!!!! __________________ MidSummer

04-02-2002, 08:24 AM	#30
geekvillager Registered User Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Geek Village Forums! Posts: 28	Publisher supply is much more than merchant demand and this will continue at an increasing rate. CPM rate will fluctuates depending on the current market conditions but it is very unlikely to rise in the long run. Last edited by geekvillager; 04-02-2002 at 08:25 AM.

02-27-2002, 01:00 AM	#16
MadCool Member. Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: NYC Posts: 22	I personally think CPM will go back up a little, but not to the 99/2000 days. DoubleClick is still able to produce a few very high CPM campaigns.

02-27-2002, 12:22 PM	#17
notibrian Registered User Join Date: Aug 1999 Location: Pg, Malaysia Posts: 770	When will we see a significant correction? well, the current economic conditions around the world is very very very bad ... everything seems to be going down except for job cuts. in order to see a significant correction of the internet industry, all other sectors and industries around the world have to recover first(when there are extra fund to invest in the market) and i think it has to take several years for that to happen even though the significant correction will not likely be the good old days of $5/CPM, i think those who still survive will be able to make 50%-100% more than what they are making now. so, just hold on and hold on tight! anyway, just my 2 cents

03-10-2002, 11:38 PM	#19
jkcity Registered User Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: England Posts: 427	I voted for q4 2002 which is when I think things will start to improve, I think things will stay the same till then I think we have reached the bottom I know my revenue has been constant for the last few months (in fact it has been increasing but not by much) but I don't think you will see things getting back to good levels for at least another 5 - 10 years, I think you can make good money in between the next 5 years or so I just think it will take about 5 years for the market to fully mature, alot is always going on and that takes time to sort out. The only thing is if you want to benifit in 5 - 10 years you have to be part of it now, as by then it will be much harder to get into and benifit without money.

03-13-2002, 02:14 PM	#21
Lasse Registered User Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 71	Q4 2002 should show an increase. May not be dramatic, but I think we've seen the bottom, and a slow, steady and realistic increase will emerge during the 2002. I wouldn't make any predictions to 5-10yrs on the tech sector!

03-28-2002, 11:33 PM	#24
notibrian Registered User Join Date: Aug 1999 Location: Pg, Malaysia Posts: 770	during 1999/2000 i was getting around $2-5/CPM and $0.1-0.2/CPC ... some people might get higher rates than i was

04-01-2002, 09:44 PM	#27
Blubster Registered User Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 183	oh my... you don't really mean $50 CPM... do you? argh... That tremendous correction (from $10 to $.50 or less) may have been shocking for all you. What I see is that; even if the current rates are what could be reasonable in the industry development, even if there are much more publishers looking for buyers than marketers looking for stock impressions and even if the publisher group grows faster than the advertiser group, the huge correction shown from 1999 to 2001 SHOULD make a wave correction in the other direction, just as a normal economical reaction. Probably we are on the middle of a W shape, as Czar pointed, or maybe we have seen the lowest level of the advertisement market. Anyways, the correction seems to be starting, and seen the importance of the downing correction, this new movement -IMHO- will be really significant in no more than 12 months.

04-02-2002, 12:20 AM	#28
Edwin Registered User Join Date: Jan 1999 Location: Tokyo, Japan Posts: 670	Yes, $50 CPM is correct, but that's on sites with 10,000-25,000 pageviews a month and very, very targeted to specific topics.

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