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Old 12-20-2004, 03:57 PM   #1
Larwee

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Default The future of AdSense

Get out your crystal ball and see if you can predict the future of AdSense.

For many Google's AdSense seems as if they have taken a trip back into time to 1999 or 2000 when there were a lot of great paying programs.

While some don't have great results with AdSense, many do. I think it is safe to say there are more people doing well with AdSense than there are people doing well with any other program.

Shortly after AdSense started there were some people predicting it wouldn't last. There are still people predicting that.

I think Google has done a great job with AdSense and they continue coming up with something new to make it better. They have a tremendous number of advertisers and publishers.

There have been others who have tried to be like AdSense but none have been able to come close. Some individual publishers might have done better with an AdSense pretender but most people have done much better with AdSense.

I personally think and hope the future will continue to be bright for AdSense. They will continue to improve by doing as much as possible to make it better.

Of course there is the potential big problem of click fraud but I believe Google will be able to deal with this because advertising revenue is so important to them.

If there is no real competition AdSense is sure to continue to do great.

Of course, Yahoo is looking at AdSense and so is Microsoft. If and when they enter the race, things could become more interesting and AdSense could start to feel the heat. But, having such a big headstart should help AdSense.

However, competition would be great since each one would likely be trying to attract publishers and might give a better deal. It could make things very interesting.

But for right now I feel things look real bright for AdSense. Will I eat my words in a year or two? I don't know.

What is your opinion of the future for AdSense?

Last edited by Larwee; 12-20-2004 at 03:59 PM.
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Old 12-20-2004, 09:17 PM   #2
Czar

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Google will have major hurdles to face as they proceed, but contextual advertising will undoubtedly dominate the interactive advertising scene for the next few years.

Google and/or its competitors will probably gradually extend their respective algorithms to include elements of behavioural targeting, as well as to provide support for rich media technologies in limited applications. The core notion behind using technology to simplify the targeting process in accordance with content found on particular pages will still rule supreme, though.

I haven't been a doomsayer per se, but I do feel that Google will have to implement fundamental changes in its technology, the composition of its network and in its staffing so as to better combat fraud. The network may continue to operate without these changes, but the value of AdSense inventory to advertisers would diminish. This, in turn, would decrease the effective earnings generated by legitimate publishers, since AdWords advertisers would allocate lower rates to those campaigns that run through the syndication system.

Competition would be very good. There are many, many players entering the market right now, but most fall well short of Google's position so it could very well take Yahoo or MSFT to shake up the roost sufficiently.
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Old 12-21-2004, 03:10 AM   #3
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BTW, I've just compared my AdSense December results.
My impressions increased in 10 times, but my eCPM also decreased in 10 times. So this is my AdSense reality.
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Old 12-21-2004, 10:11 AM   #4
Eriky
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Well then you probably have more impressions but they are seen by the same amount of visitors. (so: more impressions per visitor)
This doesn't work out too well most of the times.
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Old 12-21-2004, 10:27 AM   #5
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No, quantity of visitors increased in 10 times too.
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Old 12-21-2004, 06:21 PM   #6
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Have you tried varying your creatives since last year?

If you're still using the little blue and white 468x60s that AdSense initially introduced, the lower click rate and/or eCPM might not be surprising. If, on the other hand, you are integrating rectangles into your content or running appropriately-coloured skyscrapers down the side of your page and still seeing results 1/10 of what you witnessed last year, then it might be time to explore alternatives.
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Old 12-21-2004, 07:36 PM   #7
Chris Choi
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I think Google will have some competition on their
hands as other SEs catch up in the game. They have
a huge advantage by being the first but sooner
or later, I think they'll lose market share.
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Old 12-21-2004, 09:07 PM   #8
e_d
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Default It all depends

It all depends, with google you never really know what can happen. Google has a way of taking existing things and making them as best as they can possibly be. Google was not the first search engine, they just made the best. Google was not the first banner program, they just made the best. Of course these are all my opinions but I do not think I stand alone. I believe if google can find a new way to advertise somehow they will dominate. For years we have depended upon popups, variants of popups, and banners and variants of banners. I know youre probably asking yourself, well what else is there? There has to be something else and I am sure if there is google will find it, that is assuming they are looking. Google lets employees spend 20% of their time on personal projects that relate to google. Who knows what ways to advertise on the internet the future will bring? Someone at google...lol
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Old 12-29-2004, 11:57 AM   #9
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Hopefully MSN gets into the game. In this market it is almost impossible for the little guys to compete and bring in the kind of advertisers and revenue that adsense does, but if some more giants get involved it could get interesting. I think microsoft would be the best candidate, and I would gladly take a check from them every month as well
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Old 12-29-2004, 01:49 PM   #10
thegauntlet
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I wish overture would allow smaller sites to run their text ads. It makes sense to me.
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