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Old 02-19-2002, 03:26 PM   #8
JP Sauve
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Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Ottawa, Ontario
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You were missing an option in your poll, one I would have voted for.

I EXPECT NO CHANGE TO TAKE PLACE

I think what you currently see is what you'll get. CPMs prices won't raise. CPAs won't raise. CPS won't raise. CPC won't raise.

What you will see is more companies online, more varied CPA & CPS offers, but none really making you much more than the other. You'll just have a bigger variety to pick from.

Hate to sound bleak, but get used to the way things are, at least for the next long while. There's no reason for tons of ad cash to flood back into the Net when the stock market improves. Look at all the DOT COMs that went bust. A huge chunk of the cash spent (and lost) on advertising in the middle 90's was a mistake that probably will not be repeated again.

There's also the whole Market & Demand concept. There's currently WAY too many ad spots available (market) for the number of advertisers (demand), plus more and more available ad spots are coming online too, and that just lessens demand.

The only time I expect to see a significant improvement in online ad prices is when the Net catches up with TV as a branding vehicle, and even then the prospect is only so-so. When online technology catches up with TV, I can possibly see it as the cause of dropping TV ad prices and not a price increaser for Net ads.

Of course I might be wrong and next week we'll be selling 468x60 banner ads for $106 CPM.
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