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Old 02-19-2002, 04:44 PM   #9
I am a Contributing Geek. Are You?
Steve_S's Avatar
Join Date: Aug 1998
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Posts: 5,224

My guess and you might want to fasten your hard disk before you read any further

It's going to get worse before it gets better. Another 2 years before we see a significant correction which will never ever approach what we experienced in 99-20. Those days are gone and will never return.

1. Yahoo free email is a sign for me and numerous other free email sites will vanish. Too much investor pressure for big Y to continue a free service. More will fail before we hit bottom.

2. Free web site services will vanish. Some may be used as loss leaders for "hosts" but the brutal truth is that folks that want free sites don't buy and always want more free stuff. Many more will fail before we hit bottom.

3. We will continue to see "desperation" on the part of Publishers and Merchants. Rather than just close shop they will forever tarnish their reputation and compromise their ethics. Some of these tactics might work on other forums or eBay but geek/talkers are much to smart for this.

4. Communities of any ilk are under even more pressure. Many more will fail and evaporate or scale back to a paid service. You and I may not like this but IMHO expect a lot more to fail before we hit bottom.

5. Webmasters, if you want to set up your "lemonade stand" on the corner and compete you need to adjust your expectations. Plan on not making any money and paying all your costs from your own funds. For many, your time would be better spent working for someone else and learning the tricks of the trade.

6. New merchants will continue to arrive in an attempt to exploit the desperation of some Webmasters. Please don't cry in your beer if you didn't thoroughly read the TOS and actually examine the service before you signed up. Know more than ever before, you need to do your "due diligence"

7. The effect of the "Enron" failure is just starting to affect some publicly traded stocks in our sector. More will be toast and adjust earnings as legislation and review will forever change "creative accounting" When this runs it's course we will have hit bottom.

In closing, there will be rare exceptions in every imaginable space and circumstances but those will be few and far between. Good luck to all of you
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